Prashant Kishor Acknowledges '2 Key Mistakes' in 2024 Lok Sabha Poll Predictions: 'Ready To Eat Humble Pie | India Election | Vote | Congress | BJP

 

Poll strategist and Jan Suraaj party founder Prashant Kishor has admitted that his predictions for the 2024 Lok Sabha elections were wrong. He said he's ready to "eat the humble pie" for his mistakes. In his first interview with India Today TV after the election results, Kishor acknowledged the errors. "Yes, I and other pollsters got it wrong. We're ready to eat the humble pie," he said.

Before the results came out on June 4, Kishor predicted that the BJP would repeat its 2019 success and win around 300 seats. He even teased his critics, suggesting they "stay hydrated" and "keep plenty of water handy on June 4."

However, the results didn’t match his predictions, with the BJP winning 240 Lok Sabha seats, 20 percent fewer than in 2019. The BJP formed a majority with help from its NDA allies, crossing the important 272 mark.

When asked if he would continue making numerical predictions for future elections, Kishor said, "No, I would not get into the number of seats in elections any more."

Kishor, known for his deep understanding of India's political scene, admitted his predictions were significantly off. "I had put my assessment in front of you and I have to admit on camera that the assessment I did was wrong by a big 20 percent. We were saying BJP would get somewhere close to 300 and they got 240," he said.

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Prashant Kishor on Why Pollsters Got Election Predictions Wrong: 'Fear Factor' Among '2 Mistakes'

The poll strategist explained the challenges of converting vote share to seats and the impact of the "fear factor" in strong governments like Modi's. "In India, we are making two mistakes. Converting vote share to seats is much trickier than what Western statistical tools allow. The second is the fear factor. The stronger the government, the less likely you are to get the right answer," he said.

He also gave an example from Andhra Pradesh, telling India Today, "For example, I predicted six months ago that Jagan was losing big in Andhra. You said the poor and women were sticking with Jagan. The final result was far different than any of us predicted. This means many who said they were voting for Jagan actually didn't. The fear factor is evident in strong governments like Modi's, where people feel disadvantaged if they reveal their true vote preference. Sometimes pollsters are misled, thinking voters will choose one candidate, but they end up choosing another.

When asked about his prediction that the BJP would be the biggest party in Bengal, the Jan Suraaj Party founder admitted, "I got it wrong in four states—Bengal, UP, Rajasthan, and Maharashtra... But look at the vote share, BJP-led NDA is forming the government."

In a post on X, Kishor had confidently predicted the BJP's victory, advising his critics to keep water handy on June 4. "Drinking water is good as it keeps both mind and body hydrated. Those who are rattled with my assessment of the outcome of this election must keep plenty of water handy on June 4th," he wrote.

Reflecting on his recent errors, Kishor pledged to avoid making numerical projections in future elections. "As a strategist, I should not have got into the numbers. I never used to. It's just in the last two years that I have made mistakes. Once I did it for Bengal and this (Lok Sabha elections) is the second time," he told India Today.

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https://www.msn.com/en-in/news/India/opinion-electoral-math-why-bjp-couldn-t-get-simple-majority-in-2024/ar-BB1nQubJ?ocid=msedgntp&cvid=e283293feb8345158128df78504f0ded&ei=10